Prospects for a 3.5% increase in transport tariffs

By / / 3.5t Tachograph and New EU Regulations

The introduction of mandatory tachograph use for 3.5-metric-ton vehicles used in international transport will have a significant impact on the labor market in the transportation sector. The new rules on driving and rest times, as well as the proper use of the tachograph, will change the profile of drivers active in this segment.

In the short term, there may be a reduction in the number of available drivers, especially among those who have worked without strictly complying with the rules until now. At the same time, there will be an increase in demand for disciplined drivers who understand how to use the tachograph and can work in a more organized system that complies with European legislation.

Key aspects:

  • The 3.5-ton vehicle transport sector will become more professionalized
  • The introduction of tachographs for 3.5-ton vehicles is changing the structure of the transport labor market
  • In the short term, there may be a decrease in the number of available drivers.
  • Disciplined and trained drivers will become more sought after
  • Knowledge of the tachograph becomes essential for employment
  • The 3.5-ton vehicle transport sector will become more professionalized

This chapter analyzes, in a pragmatic and market-oriented manner, the real probability of tariff increases in the 3.5-ton vehicle transport segment, in the context of the introduction of the tachograph and the related operational constraints.

9.1. Why there is a real chance of an increase (especially on certain flows)

One argument in favor of a rate increase is the combination of constrained supply and rising costs.

Market Insights analyses indicate moderate growth in demand for 2026, but in a context of limited capacity and cost pressures that support higher tariff levels.

The 2025 rate market has already shown signs of a slight recovery. The Ti–Upply–IRU index highlights increases in both contract and spot markets, as well as positive market sentiment regarding rate developments.

The introduction of the tachograph significantly reduces “productivity” for operators in the 3.5-metric-ton segment who based their competitiveness on excessive driving schedules. In practice, this means fewer trips that can be completed within a given time frame, longer transit times, and, in many cases, the need for additional drivers. All of these factors translate into higher costs per kilometer and, ultimately, pressure on prices, to the extent that operators have bargaining power.

9.2. Why many operators will not be able to increase their tariffs (or will only be able to do so partially)

The 3.5-metric-ton vehicle transport segment is highly price-sensitive. Many customers have shifted to this segment precisely because of the low rates and high flexibility. Consequently, some of them will continue to exert pressure on prices and direct their volumes toward operators willing to accept minimal margins, even at the risk of non-compliance.

The structural difference between the spot market and medium- or long-term contracts must also be taken into account. In periods of modest demand, the spot market is more volatile, and customers may postpone or refuse tariff adjustments. Market index data show significant quarterly variations and clear discrepancies between spot and contract developments.

In this context, the operators that can demonstrate a high level of quality and compliance—including complete documentation, traceability, operational predictability, and a low risk of non-compliance during inspections—will survive and be able to sustain rate increases. Operators that cannot provide this evidence will remain stuck in the “low-cost” segment, where the scope for rate increases is limited.

9.3. Operators most likely to increase tariffs

The operators with the greatest chances of a positive tariff adjustment are those who:

  • operates primarily on a contract basis, not exclusively on the spot market, and uses clear performance indicators (OTIF, complaint rate, temperature control, ADR, adherence to time slots);
  • sell integrated logistics services (time-window deliveries, packaging returns, cross-dock, track & trace), not just kilometers traveled;
  • We work with clients who understand and value low risk, given that fines, seizures, or disruptions to the flow of goods result in significant costs for the shipper.

9.4. How price increases will be reflected (practical forms)

In practice, successful tariff increases rarely take the form of a general percentage increase applied uniformly. Much more frequently, adjustments take the form of:

  • specific surcharges, such as “compliance surcharges,” “regulatory surcharges,” standby fees, slot reservation fees, or toll surcharge-type adjustments;
  • redefining SLAs with more realistic transit times, linked to an adjusted rate;
  • differentiated rates on certain routes (e.g., Germany, France, Benelux), where the level of oversight and restrictions is higher and the operational risk is significantly greater.

9.5. Pragmatic verdict for the year 2026

The outlook for 2026 indicates that there is room for tariff increases, as supply and costs are exerting upward pressure and market analyses show a moderate upward trend.

However, this growth will not be uniform. Well-organized operators with clear procedures, solid data, operational discipline, and stable contractual relationships will be able to capitalize on the increases. In contrast, operators whose competitive advantage was based solely on low prices and speed achieved through excessive scheduling will be squeezed between rising costs and customers reluctant to pay.

Frequently asked questions about the impact of the 3.5 t tachograph on drivers and the labor market

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